Doctoral project

The title of the dissertation is “Foreign Direct Investment, Potential GDP and Output gap: Econometric evidence from developing countries” This dissertation focuses on the estimation of potential GDP and the analysis of output gaps in developing countries, providing new econometric evidence to inform growth and stability policies. The central aim is to improve the measurement of potential output, a key but often imprecisely estimated indicator in emerging economies. While the core emphasis is on potential GDP estimation, the study also investigates the role of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as one of the external drivers that can affect productive capacity and influence deviations from potential output. By employing panel data across a wide set of developing economies, the research evaluates how institutional quality, macroeconomic policies, and openness to trade interact with FDI to shape long-term growth potential and short-term output fluctuations.
The findings aim to enrich the literature on development economics by offering more accurate and context-specific measures of potential GDP, while also providing evidence on how external capital inflows and domestic conditions contribute to narrowing or widening output gaps. The research further provides policy recommendations for developing countries seeking to align growth strategies with sustainable long-run potential.

Publications

1. Mirkasimov B., Asfaw E., Askarov Z., and Mukhammedova A. (2022) «Potential Economic Impact of Green Economies and Determinants of Carbon Emissions in Central Asia: The case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan» in Resilience and Economic Growth in Times of High Uncertainty (Chapter 5). CAREC Institute
   
   
2. Mirkasimov B., Asfaw E., Askarov Z., and Mukhammedova A. (2022) «Determinants of Green Growth in Uzbekistan» CPRO Policy Brief No. 2022-08, Westminster International University in Tashkent
   
   
3. Mukhammedova A. (2024) «The role of Foreign Direct Investment in Fostering Economic Growth and Green Developement in Uzbekistan». Science and Innovation - International Scientific Journal., 3 (10), 135-138. 
   
   
4. Mukhammedova A. (2024) «Harnessing Foreign Direct Investment for Sustainable Economic Growth in Cen-tral Asia: Policy Challenges and Opportunities». Yashil iqtisodiyot va Taraqqiyot - journal, Issue 10, 1159–1239.

Conference participations, scientific talks

1. Mirkasimov B., Asfaw E., Askarov Z., and Mukhammedova A. (2022) «Potential Economic Impact of Green Economies and Determinants of Carbon Emissions in Central Asia: The case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan»., Central Asia Regional Cooperation (CAREC) Institute Research Conference - Theme: Resilience and Economic Growth in Times of High Uncertainty in CAREC Region.
   
   
2. Mukhammedova A. (2024) «The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Bridging Output Gaps and Enhancing Potential GDP In Developing Economies». Fan va Tadqiqot Samaralari - international, scientific and practical conference, 1(3), 106–112.