Doctoral Project:

Econometric modelling of labour market patterns: job creation and job destruction

The research study sheds light on Uzbek labour market composition and job creation & destruction trends over the transition years of Uzbekistan.

In this research study, we carry out a comprehensive survey of theoretical and empirical research studies on interrelation between employment, inflation, and economic growth through the prism of Phillips relationship and Okun’s law in the Chapter 1, the research study shows the validity of Okun’s law in the context of Uzbekistan, though causal relationship is found to run from unemployment to economic growth. In contrast, unemployment rate and inflation are positively correlated, which contrasts with traditional Phillips curve.

The investigation of current state of Uzbek labour market in Uzbekistan in Chapter 2 stresses out growing working-age population is not accompanied with sufficient job creation activities carried out in Uzbekistan since it absorbs only a tenth of growing working-age population.

In contrast, our estimates of job destruction stress out significant impact of climate change and automation. The job destruction resulted from the decarbonisation of Uzbek economy in the wake of transition to the green economy is found to pose a risk of being unemployed for 44% of total employment in Uzbekistan. The analysis of the skills structure over 1991–2019 emphasise that Uzbek labour market is primarily composed of low- and medium-skilled workers and this structure has not significantly changed over time, which could deteriorate the lifetime earnings of the population. This implies that job destruction driven by automation can put 72% of employment at the risk of being unemployed.

In addition, the cross-country analysis results emphasise the severity of gender gap and gender wage inequality even though potential economic gains from maintaining inclusivity of women into labour market would enhance national economic growth.

In Chapter 3, the study identifies the factors determining the employment growth in private firms over 2000–2020. The estimates of firm dynamism show that in the context of both Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, the probability of firms remaining the same in terms of their size is high which indicates firms in these countries tend to demonstrate weak firm dynamism, which stressed out the private firms had not grown as fast as key players and tended to stay small over time.

The empirical findings have identified major determinants of employment growth in Uzbek private sector. The results point up three key drivers of employment growth in firms in terms of both statistical significance and magnitude of the impact—product innovation, access to finance, and sales. Out of these factors, access to finance and product innovations are found to be the most important variables determining the employment growth in firms.

Publications:

• Suyunov, A., Mirkasimov, B., Karimov, K. (2018). Research and Development Reform: The case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. International Journal of Civil Service Reform and Practice, vol. 10, no. 2.
• Mirkasimov, B., Suyunov, A. (Forthcoming). Wages, participation, unemployment and skills mismatch in the economic transition of Kyrgyzstan.
• Shodiev T., Suyunov, A. (2021). The Strategy Actions: Liberalisation and Economic Growth of Uzbekistan?
• Suyunov, A., Shodiev T. (Forthcoming). Inflation, Unemployment and Economic Growth Causality: Do Phillips and Okun’s laws work in Uzbekistan’s Economy?
• Suyunov, A. (2021). Explaining Uzbek firms’ growth: The Cobb-Douglas production function using firm-level data? Journal of Science and Practice, Vol. 13, Issue 3. pp. 120-131
• Suyunov, A., Shodiev T. (2021). Do electricity blackouts affect firms’ performance in Uzbekistan? Economy: Analysis and Forecasts, Vol. 4, Issue 4. pp. 200-210
• Suyunov, A. (2021), Do foreign direct investments and bank credits affect employment in Uzbekistan? Journal of Economics and Development, https://doi.org/10.1108/JED-06-2021-0082

Conference participations:

• Oct 2021—A scientific and practical international conference on “Problems and prospects of employment in the context of development of the digital economy” (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: What drives job creation in private firms in Uzbekistan?
• Oct 2021—The XIII Economists Forum on “Strategic initiatives and practical recommendations for sustainable economic development: potential and risks” (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: Do electricity blackouts affect firms’ performance in Uzbekistan?
• Sep 2021—A scientific and practical republican conference on “Actual problems of organizing accounting, reporting and audit based on international standards in the digital economy” (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: The production function using firm-level data: Are Uzbek firms productive?
• May 2021—Enhancing of contemporary business management, economics, innovation technologies, and social sciences: a viewpoint on research and practice (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: Explaining Uzbek firms’ growth: The Cobb-Douglas production function using firm-level data
• May 2021—The Strategy of the Actions of the Republic of Uzbekistan: Macroeconomic Stability, Investment Activity and Perspectives of Innovative Development (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: The Strategy Actions: Liberalisation and Economic Growth of Uzbekistan?
• Oct 2019—5th Annual ‘Life in Kyrgyzstan’ Conference (Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic)
• Presented Paper #1: Wages, participation, unemployment, and skills mismatch in the economic transition of Kyrgyzstan
• Presented Paper #2: The relationship between sugar-sweetened beverages consumption and weight gain: Empirical evidence from Central Asia
• May 2019—The First International Postgraduate Research Conference (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: The relationship between sugar-sweetened beverages consumption and weight gain: Empirical evidence from Central Asia.
• Oct 2018—Internationalization and Innovation in Higher Education: a joint conference by Westminster International University in Tashkent and the University of Westminster in London (Tashkent, Uzbekistan)
• Presented Paper: Research and Development Reform: The case of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Other achievements:

• Suyunov A., Usmanova N., Abdujalilov J. (2020). “Fog computing” environment implementation and data processing visualisation (UZ Patent No. DGU 7722). Agency on Intellectual Property.
• Suyunov A. (2020). opendatauzb: Downloading available datasets and Uzbek Stock Market data from official open data sources of Uzbekistan. R package. https://github.com/alishersuyunov/opendatauzb